LA Times Blog: Ron Paul keeps rolling

This objective entry in the LA Times Blog is worth the read:

Certain numbers keep calling attention to the phenomenon that is Ron Paul.

The most obvious one, of course, was the more than $4.2 million that his campaign reported raising in a single day via the Internet earlier this month. This week, other figures stand out: He attracted a crowd of more than 1,000 people in Nevada, and a new poll showed him doubling his support in New Hampshire.

--

eh, About those media "polls"

There's been a lot of discussion on why Ron Paul, with all of his obvious Internet popularity, is only polling in the single digits nationwide. Various theories have been presented, such as "pollsters don't call cell phones, and Ron Paul's followers don't use landlines," and "much of Ron Paul's support comes from first-time voters."

The mainstream uses the single-digit poll results to support their claim that "Ron Paul doesn't stand a chance," and use them as ammunition for excluding him from debates or coverage. But just how "scientific" are those polling methods?

...

..[these] polls use only "Republicans who voted in the last Presidential Primary." (link)

Well, how about that. How many republicans do you know who went and voted in the 2004 GOP presidential primaries, since the only candidate running for the GOP nomination was incumbent President Bush? Hmmmm? According to USAToday, Republican turnout in the 2004 primary was a whopping 6.6%! These scientific, professional media polls are based on a sampling of people taken from only 6.6% of the registered republicans from 2004!

As the original author says,

Think about that. The mainstream press is using this handful of people who voted for George W. Bush--when he was running unopposed!--as their "statistically significant" sample of concerned American voters. The political analysts are basing their election predictions, and their professional careers, on a random and biased telephone survey of a few hundred people who bothered to show up when their "fearless leader" wasn't being challenged by anyone.

UI Iowa Straw Poll pre-poll numbers: Paul hits 7%, McCain collapses into "third tier"

The latest UI polls frow Iowapolitics.com:

Aug 8 2007

As Straw Poll Approaches, Romney Soars, Giuliani Drops And McCain Collapses

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appears to have taken a commanding lead in Iowa among registered Republican voters and Republican caucus goers, according to a new University of Iowa poll released today, Wednesday, Aug. 8. Poll results also indicate that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has lost support, and support for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has collapsed well into the third tier of candidates.

[...]

Iowa Straw Poll

A sample of 222 people who were considered the most likely Republican caucus goers were asked a series of questions about the Aug. 11 Straw Poll in Ames.

Most -- 81.5 percent -- were aware of the straw poll; 18.5 percent were not. Of those who were aware, only 23.8 percent planned to attend, leaving a number too small to analyze with confidence for details of candidate support. However, about one-third of those planning to attend said they support Romney, 16 percent Tancredo, 12 percent Giuliani, 9 percent Brownback and 7 percent Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.

That's not bad at all for a candidate who just starting campaigning in Iowa two days ago. If he places 5th in the Ames Straw Poll as predicted here, he's well on his way into serious contention as a top tier candidate.

UPDATE: Here are more political spinmeisters sharing good vibes of the unstoppable Ron Paul campaign as it heads into this all-important weekend. RealClearPolitics notes that Paul is only one of two GOP candidates airing tv commercials in Iowa, and Evans/Novak says "Paul has garnered excellent spontaneous grassroots support at every turn, but this hasn't turned into more than a blip in polls or in media coverage. His fundraising, however, is surprising, and his breadth of support on the Internet is impressive. If he shows well in Ames, he could start garnering real media attention."

Here Paul shares the wisdom of liberty with a crowd of patrons at a Pizza place in Union County, Aug. 8:

GOP Candidates' YouTube Stats - 07/15/07

Little late posting this update, but the data used was collected on July 15 and I just now got around to putting it all together. Initial observations are that the growth for some of the second tier candidates seems to be dipping a little (see growth charts here). Paul's on a rocket to the stars and Romney is the only other candidate with any hope of coming to within half of Paul's YouTube success. And the media says McCain is all but over, but according to this data, his YouTube supporters have not yet abandoned him.

The Charts
First, the cumulative views (inspired by TechPresident's Youtube charts) and other cumulatives for the frontrunner candidates.





Now for the averages sans outliers to reflect true user loyalty to each candidate (an explanation on the outlier data and why they're removed can be found here).






Here are the growth graphs showing actual growth in various user activities for each candidate since May 22. All candidates have been now been added to these growth charts.

Channel Views	Cumulative Ratings	Cumulative Comments
Cumulative Views	Subscribers	Ratings Averages
Comments Averages	Views Averages

As usual, Paul's numbers are blowing the curve. If you want me to remove Paul's data to look at the actual growth of the other candidates, let me know in the comments.

Previous entries:
July 1, 2007: GOP Candidates YouTube Stats - 07/01/07
June 21, 2007: GOP Candidates YouTube Stats - 06/21/07
June 11, 2007: GOP Candidate YouTube Stats - 06/11/07
June 2, 2007: GOP Candidate YouTube Stats, Charts (Followup)
May 22, 2007: About those Youtube Stats...

Debunking the "Ron Paul can't win" Myths

-Updated July 6, 2007-

It's become a standard component of all discussion surrounding Ron Paul's presidential candidacy: "..but he won't win the nomination." Stop saying it, because it's not true. I'll tell you why, without even mentioning his unshakable voluminous internet support mob (well, except to say his avid supporters have completely taken over Digg and Youtube, and he consistently wins every online poll that's offered - see how this internet support translates to actual feet on the ground here).

First off, how much does the media establishment really control the message? Let's look at a little recent electoral history: at this point in 1975, Jimmy Carter was at 1% in the national polls and went on to win the Presidency. In 1980, amidst a crowded field of GOP contenders, Ronald Reagan was flat out told he couldn't win, but he did. In mid-1987, Dukakis was at 1% in the polls and went on to win the Democratic nomination. In 1991, Clinton was at 2% in the polls and went on to become President.

How will it happen for Ron Paul?
Two years ago, Republicans made up 50% of the electorate. Indisputably, Bush's bungling of the war has shrunk that number down to 30%. Did that 20% just vanish, was it absorbed into the Democratic party, or did they drop off the radar as disenchanted conservatives because there was no one in leadership representing their views?

Who are these people that make up the missing 20%? From my own observations, about half of them are what is known as paleo-conservatives, small-government traditionalists who opposed the war from the start, but opposed Democrats even more, whose votes in 2004 were primarily anti-Kerry votes. Another quarter of them are Christian conservatives who've painfully recognized the liberal nature of this administration's policies and failures of its execution of the war in Iraq, the Birchers and Buchananists. Some of them are the free-trade libertarian-minded conservatives who've grown tired of government interference in matters of the economy. A small handful of them are anti-immigration conservatives seething from Bush and the GOP leaders' refusal to protect the borders. All of these groups are primed to embrace Ron Paul's message with enthusiasm, and together they comprise a full 20% of the electorate.

The Voting Electorate
Roughly 35% of the electorate self-identify as Democrats, and a dwindling 30% call themselves Republicans (see chart below). Media polling organizations often limit themselves to voters in these two groups, leaving out the voices of the 35% who claim neither party as their own.

Using the latest polling data, Giuliani has the support of 18% of self-identified Republicans, or about 5.4% of the overall electorate. McCain has 14% support from Republicans, or 4.2% of the electorate. Further, a full 30% of republicans (and 30% of democrats) are undecided, expressing great dissatisfaction with the media-anointed frontrunners. That figure alone equals a whopping 18% of the electorate (9% Republicans, 9% Democrats).

Now let's take that 20% of the electorate that is comprised of traditional conservatives who've abandoned the GOP since 2004 for various reasons. Combine that with the 9% of undecideds from the republican base and what you have is vast potential - 29% of the electorate - for Ron Paul. This gap between the dwindling base and mass of conservatives as a whole poses insurmountable odds to the likes of Giuliani's puny 5.4% or McCain's 4.2%, provided Paul's message is able to penetrate the media din of celebrity frontrunners.

In addition to this obvious GOP chasm (which is intensifying steadily over current immigration issues), we have another layer of influence to consider in how the country will vote. With nearly 3/4 of the country now opposed to the war in Iraq, and only one candidate offering to end it conclusively and expeditiously, odds overwhelmingly favor that very candidate. And there are lots more anti-war conservatives than the media give you privy to.

Remember, Paul consistently ranks very high in conservative credentials as determined by major conservative organizations and pundits alike. Early on, conservative support for Paul was vocalized, while some of these conservatives have already formally endorsed Paul for the GOP nomination.

Disenchanted Liberals
Coming straight out of left field, a third level of opportunity emerges from liberals writhing in their perceived betrayal of the newly elected Democratic majorities. Recent actions by the Democratic congress concerning war and trade issues have party activists livid, as a cursory scan of the liberal blogs will reveal. An undercurrent of Paul's common sense policy proposals already flows through these environs, and can easily separate the more frustrated liberals from the party, motivating them to vote for Paul in the primaries. The reasons are varied in their explanations, but more and more liberals are mentioning Paul in a surprisingly favorable light. Here's one liberal who believes that a Paul nomination will greatly improve the quality of discourse in today's acrid political environment. And another who embraces the taboo amongst liberal peers that comes from supporting Paul.

His common sense message of freedom, liberty, small government, non-intervention and reduced taxation, so deeply devoted to the Constitution, is uniting people across the political spectrum. Birchers and liberals united in common cause? Yes, it's happening. Despite pundit attempts to discredit Paul with the "he can't win" disclaimer, the vast pool of voters across the landscape who are hungry for strong, proven, Constitutional leadership is Ron Paul's for the taking.



Now say it with me: He can win.

No it will not be an easy task, and no you cannot sit back and relax and just watch it happen. Paul needs our support every minute of every day to carry his campaign into top tier status to help introduce him to the uninspired, quasi-apolitical conservative masses.

One more time: He can win. But only with our unequivocal enthusiasm and support.

Once Paul becomes the Republican presidential nominee, how do you think he'll fair against big government Hillary and billionaire corporatist Bloomberg? In this matchup, I predict a landslide victory for Paul. Though to become the 44th President of the United States, he only needs 33% + 1. It's no longer looking so impossible now, is it?


Update July 6, 2007:
For those still not convinced Ron Paul is the people's only choice for the 44th President of the United States, consider these points:

51% of this country voted for Ron Paul's message when they elected George Bush as president in 2000, because Bush ran on the traditional conservative platform of small-government, states rights, lower taxes and a humble foreign policy. And now for 2008, Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate in a crowded field who is bravely carrying the torch for that philosophy. The difference between Paul and Bush is that Paul has the solid record of 20 years of conservative, Constitutional leadership to back up every single thing he's saying. The people voted for this message just 7 years ago, and with a candidate of impeccable character like Paul leading the way, they'll vote for it again.

Also,
70% of Americans want the war in Iraq to be over, and our troops home. Only one candidate has the temerity to initiate that process on the first day of his presidency, Ron Paul. Ron Paul has been against this illegitimate war since it was first conceived in 1998, and has bravely spoken against it in his writings, in his speeches on the floor of the House, and in his public speaking engagements. There is no doubt where he stands regarding the war in Iraq, and the subsequent build-up of aggression towards Iran. He brings forth the leadership that a full 70% of this country wants.

81% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and in the same poll, 72% believe our Founding Fathers would be disappointed with the state of our nation today. Our current course is set for perpetual war, imminent bankruptcy, the continued weakening of our borders, our sovereignty, and our individual liberties, regardless of which party's media-designated "frontrunner" takes the helm in 2008. Only one candidate is offering to put us back on the course our Founding Fathers designed. That candidate is Ron Paul.

A new Zogby Poll has found that 9 in 10 Americans - 90% - believe the U.S. Constitution is still relevant in today's world. Only one candidate has adhered strictly to the Constitution throughout his entire political career. That candidate is Ron Paul. When God-fearing patriotic Americans listen to him speak, they know in their hearts that he's right because the language of liberty touches an inalienable instinct in all red-blooded Americans. We know that both the GOP and our government have lost their way and only one man, with the strength of his convictions, as well as our own, can return them both to the correct path.

There is absolutely no mistake: this country wants Ron Paul as its next president. What have you done today to help make that happen?

GOP Candidates YouTube Stats - 07/01/07

I'm a couple days late with this update, but other than the tedium of adding the remaining candidates to the minutiae charts, only a little has changed since last time. Rudy almost doubled the number of videos for his campaign this week, but that doesn't seem to have helped his numbers much. With 41 videos now in his profile, he's still averaging only 2 comments per. Mitt "double Guantanamo" Romney slowed his production down to a trickle, but I'm sure he'll break 200 videos by the next update. And for what, exactly?

One of the pieces of data that I had originally overlooked is the average score of the ratings each video receives, which roughly indicates whether a candidate is producing high quality, well-liked, engaging videos. I've added that element to the tracking just to see whose videos are rating the highest quality. And, though none of the candidates are really tanking in this department, you probably don't have to actually look at these numbers to know whose videos are drawing in an average of almost 5 stars across the board (Ron Paul).

Before we get to the charts, here is how the candidates' videos are graded by the masses, from lowest to highest:

Rudy Giuliani:		2.79 stars
Sam Brownback		3.30
Jim Gilmore		3.40
John McCain		3.44
Tom Tancredo		3.83
Mike Huckabee		3.88
Duncan Hunter		3.93
Fred Thompson		4.12
Mitt Romney		4.27
Ron Paul		4.89

First, the cumulative views (inspired by TechPresident's Youtube charts) and other cumulatives for the frontrunner candidates. I'll be adding the remaining candidates to these charts in one of the next updates because most of the rest are starting to show a little rustling in their Youtube popularity. But for now, the established frontrunners:





Now for the averages sans outliers to reflect true user loyalty to each candidate (an explanation on the outlier data and why they're removed can be found here).





Here are the growth graphs showing actual growth in various user activities for each candidate since May 22. All candidates have been now been added to these growth charts. This is what tedium is all about:

Channel Views	Cumulative Ratings	Cumulative Comments
Cumulative Views	Subscribers	Ratings Averages
Comments Averages	Views Averages

You can't really tell what's going on with the other candidates as long as Paul's numbers keep blowing the curve. I couldn't decide whether to remove Paul's numbers or not, just so people could see the steady pace at which the also-rans continue to grow without being scrunched up at the bottom like they are. But then, if these candidates can't catch up and carve their own visible paths on these charts, that's not mine nor Ron Paul's problem.

Previous entries:
June 21, 2007: GOP Candidates YouTube Stats - 06/21/07
June 11, 2007: GOP Candidate YouTube Stats - 06/11/07
June 2, 2007: GOP Candidate YouTube Stats, Charts (Followup)
May 22, 2007: About those Youtube Stats...

Media Polls vs. Online Rankings, 2008 Presidential Candidates

I read this article about the impact of the internet on the 2008 presidential election, about how the internet is coming to be to the 2008 election what television was to Kennedy in 1960. I was impressed that the author mentioned Howard Dean's 2003 rise on the internet, when this analogy first surfaced, and felt confident that Ron Paul's internet presence would receive his just notice as well. Not so.

That prompted me to consider just how close all the offline media polls are tracking with the online activity of our favorite candidates. After several hours of digging around in the data, I present to you: more charts. Charts reflecting the offline media poll rankings of each candidate among his or her party, and comparing the data to the respective candidate's online rankings. So here we go.

The charts below compare the offline media polling numbers to the online world rankings for each candidate in their party. The first one shows the offline media poll rankings for Democrats during the month of June, 2007. As you can see, it's pretty consistently Clinton-Obama-Edwards in that order, with Clinton hitting the upper 30s-lower 40s, Obama hovering in the mid-20s, Edwards in the mid-10s, Richardson getting an anemic 5% average and Kucinich down around the 2-3% mark as usual.



Now look at their online rankings (below). The three frontrunners are still frontrunners just in differing orders, and the second tier candidates are showing second-tier rankings. Obama and Edwards seem to be vying for the lead with an occassional spike by Clinton. Notice both Biden's and Richardson's online rankings track pretty closely with the offline media polls, but they're the only two candidates to do so among Democrats. It may not be very obvious on this chart, but while Kucinich is ranked down in the 2-3 point range in offline polling, he's achieving somewhere around 10-15% penetration in online Democratic markets. Overall there is not much discrepancy to worry about at this point.



Now let's look at the Republican candidates (below), starting with the offline media poll numbers. Giuliani is solidly out front, with F. Thompson and McCain battling it out for second place. Poor Romney seems to be straddling the second-tier ditch, not quite in the upper ranks but doing a few solid points better than the actual second-tier contenders.



Something is radically askew here. As you can see from the Democratic candidate numbers, the online rankings are off, but not so terribly much that you're in another world. Here, we enter a whole other world. Suddenly the frontrunners are no longer frontrunners, and several second-tier candidates leap into the fore with heightened internet activity. Take a look at the GOP candidates' online rankings.



Ron Paul literally blows the rest of the candidates away, across the board, with second-tier straddler Mitt Romney and only one alleged front-runner, John McCain, coming within spitball range of Paul's online position. Could this possibly portend a showdown between McCain, Paul and Romney in the primaries?

I would expect small deviations like we see in the Democrat numbers to be normal as the world settles in comfortably to the internet age, but nothing so radical as an almost complete flip of the numbers like we see here. Why such a startling discrepancy between media polls and online rankings among the GOP candidates? What is it among republican voters that could cause this sort of chaos in the numbers? I've heard all the cellphone-landline arguments and don't buy it, not when the Democrats have a relatively smooth support transition from media polls to the internet. So what it is, really?

About those Youtube stats...

The TechPresident site has done an amazing job assembling the data across the internet that can be used as metrics of online support for the 2008 Presidential Candidates. They generate charts based on registered eventful.com demands, cumulative video views at Youtube, and blog posts from Technorati.com. I will be defering to TechPresident's expertise from now on when discussing the internet-based support for particular candidates.



TechPresident's cumulative video views per candidate (above) charts the actual number of individual video views for each video uploaded by the campaigns to their official YouChoose08 pages. This chart looks impressive, but is deeply flawed as a stand-alone metric for candidate support at Youtube. Below I will attempt to explain why, and will limit the discussion solely to the youtube statistics.

For starters, the video view totals include involuntary display counts achieved through embedded placements on external pages throughout the internet. Additionally, Youtube counts every time the video is played, regardless of whether one user played it a thousand times (see page-refresh schemes) or whether a thousand users viewed it only once. There is no way to measure the depth of support for a candidate based exclusively on video view counts. When these data are combined with other metrics, then a clearer picture of candidate support density can emerge.

Each candidate has one or two videos that virtually exploded in popularity, while their remaining videos received very little attention in proportion to the outliers. Remember we're trying to measure support - loyalty - to the candidates, and not the popularity of an overnight fad sensation. For that very reason I'm taking the liberty of throwing the outliers out in the text analysis that follows. Please note that the data used below is current at 5pm EDT, Monday, May 21, 2007.

Mitt Romney leads the field with 938,520 total views across 140 videos posted by the Romney campaign. But one of his videos received 440,798 views alone (46% of his total views), leaving 497,722 views across 139 videos. That averages out to just 3,581 views per video.

Hunter with 15 videos under his belt is running neck and neck with Paul as far as cumulative views go, but he too has an outlier with a disproportionate number of views (290,548 views) from his otherwise mundane 2,863 average views per video.

McCain, with 48 videos, has one video boasting 300,698 views, with the other clips averaging around 3,171 views each.

Giuliani's 16 videos show one with 49,575 views (nearly 50% of his total combined views), leaving the others to an average 3,785 views apiece.

Paul, with 17 videos in his profile, has one receiving 122,832 views, leaving the other 16 clips with an average of 15,488 views each.

Chart:

Also, each candidate has a different posting style. Ron Paul posts complete videos, while Romney and Hunter post tiny sections of larger appearances that are broken down by specific topics. Let's take the May 3 debate clips for an example. Paul posted one clip, covering his participation throughout the event. This single debate clip received 122,832 views, was rated 1,255 times, and was favorited 514 times. Romney on the other hand, posted 12 individual clips, each averaging just 5,183 views, with an average of 39 ratings and 6 favoritings per clip. What can we gather from this kind of data, and how do they more accurately reflect the loyal support base of the candidates?

I spent about 8 hours combing through each of the listed candidate's videos at Youtube to pool together how many times each was rated, commented or favorited, as well as the number of subscribers each candidate has and the number of videos each candidate has posted. This information is intended the recognize the conscious action viewers took willingly to express their support, therefore more accurately representing the support candidates are receiving at the site. I hope you find the effort revealing. This is the chart that resulted from the numbers, which includes the outliers that were previously eliminated above (click for larger view):

Tossing out the outliers mentioned above, here's a chart of the averages per video, per candidate (click to view larger).


So once again while Romney has an impressive high cumulative view total, he's coming up way short on the law of averages. And once again, Paul's support seems to punch through the mediocre haze to catapult this candidate into a mainstream mainstay for the duration.

While TechPresident's data is a step up from the information we had in the 2004 presidential campaign and should be commended, it doesn't go nearly far enough, as you can see from the layers of intricate data that reflect measurements of actual free will support through voluntary behavior. I think I am not alone in expressing hope that they will incorporate a deeper analysis tool that carefully weighs and adjusts the aggregates to more accurately reflect a candidate's real underlying online support.

Update: Just stopped by the meetup.com site, and noticed of the candidate groups organized so far, Ron Paul tops the list in the general Candidate category with 2,301 members in 113 locations around the country. But, there seems to be a USA President category under which Paul is not listed. In that section, Obama has the most members at 3,210 with half the number of cities as Paul.

And over at Alexa.com, Paul's still leading the pack in website traffic, beating out even Obama.

Ron Paul generates enormous internet buzz after seven minutes of exposure

The Ron Paul Revolution is now underway. After just one debate, during which America was given a seven minute glimpse of the man and his principles, see for yourself the astounding results.

From Technorati.com:

English posts that contain Ron Paul per day for the last 30 days.

Get your own chart!

Additionally, bloggers have catapulted Ron Paul to the top of the list in Technorati Top Searches.


From Alexa.com:







As the campaign sees it:

Ron Paul Builds Momentum

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 8, 2007

ARLINGTON, VA – Congressman Ron Paul's support has soared since the first Republican presidential debate. Conservative commentator John McLaughlin, host of “The McLaughlin Group," cited Ron Paul as having given "the best performance of the debate." In fact, the Paul campaign's apparent strength has many other pundits scrambling to explain it. Paul campaign officials offer the following examples of the candidate's rising success.

Since the debate on May 3, Ron Paul:

• Handily won two post-debate polls posted by event sponsor MSNBC
• Placed a close third (18%) in a post-debate poll on the conservative Drudge Report
• Won an ABCNews.com online debate poll with 84%
• Won a C-SPAN online GOP candidate poll with 69%
• Became the third most-mentioned person in the blogosphere, beating out Paris Hilton, according to the reputable Technorati.com
• Produced a YouTube.com video that was ranked the 8th most popular overall video, and the most-viewed political video
• Was featured, by popular demand, on the front of Digg.com
• Generated so many bulletin posts on MySpace.com that the site owner News Corp. blocked all additional posts about Dr. Paul
• Became a "most searched" term on Google and Yahoo!
• Saw a quadrupling of daily visitors to RonPaul2008.com

"These figures speak for themselves," said campaign chairman Kent Snyder. "Ron Paul has quickly become a strong contender for the GOP nomination because of his powerful message of freedom and limited government."

-30-

POLLS: Who Won the GOP Presidential Debate, May 3, 2007?

Above is a compilation video of Congressman Paul's responses in the May 3 GOP Presidential primary debate, hosted by the Reagan Presidential Library, MSNBC and Politico.com. If you like what you see, please vote on the video and add it to your favorites at the Youtube site. If you were impressed by Ron Paul in this debate, please contribute to his campaign, even $25 from you will help Paul get mainstream media's attention.

Below are the results of various internet polls questioning users on their opinions about the May 3 GOP Debate. Some of them are still ongoing and thus subject to change. The totals reported here were current at the time this post was published. More polls will be added as they are discovered.

Jump to MSNBC debate categories poll, MSNBC Rate the Candidates poll, C-Span poll, Conservativesbetrayed.com poll, World Net Daily poll, Boston Globe poll, ABCnews.com poll.

If you know of other internet polls measuring the response to the May 3 GOP debate, please post a link to the poll in the comments.

---

MSNBC Live Vote Debate Categories Poll (updated 5-7-07, 00:28 EDT) Who stood out from the pack? 62248 responses
Sam Brownback	2.4%
Jim Gilmore	1.3%
Rudy Giuliani	16%
Mike Huckabee	3.6%
Duncan Hunter	1.8%
John McCain	7.6%
Ron Paul	40%
Mitt Romney	22%
Tom Tancredo	2.8%
Tommy Thompson	3.3%
Who showed the most leadership qualities? 61455 responses
Sam Brownback	2.3%
Jim Gilmore	1.8%
Rudy Giuliani	17%
Mike Huckabee	3.6%
Duncan Hunter	2.1%
John McCain	12%
Ron Paul	35%
Mitt Romney	21%
Tom Tancredo	2.6%
Tommy Thompson	3.6%
Who was the most convincing candidate? 61214 responses
Sam Brownback	2.8%
Jim Gilmore	1.7%
Rudy Giuliani	15%
Mike Huckabee	4.3%
Duncan Hunter	2.1%
John McCain	9.6%
Ron Paul	38%
Mitt Romney	20%
Tom Tancredo	3%
Tommy Thompson	3.7%
Positive Rate the Candidates responses, MSNBC, 82,645 votes (watch Kieth Olbermann report the winner in post-debate commentary) (updated: 5-7-07, 00:16 EDT)
Paul	38%
Romney	27%
Giuliani	24%
McCain	19%
Huckabee	13%
C-Span: Who won Thursday's Republican Presidential debate? (6637 votes) (updated: 5-7-07 00:00 EDT)
Sam Brownback	1%
Jim Gilmore	1%
Rudolph Giuliani	4%
Mike Huckabee	2%
Duncan Hunter	2%
John McCain	4%
Mitt Romney	8%
Ron Paul	74%
Tom Tancredo	3%
Tommy Thompson	2%
From Romney's home state: The Boston Globe: (430 votes)
Ron Paul	56.0%
Mitt Romney	27.2%
John McCain	7.2%
Rudy Giuliani	3.7%
Tommy Thompson	2.1%
Tom Tancredo	1.2%
Jim Gilmore	0.9%
Sam Brownback	0.7%
Mike Huckabee	0.7%
Duncan Hunter	0.2%
World Net Daily: If you watched the Republican debate, who do you think won?
Ron Paul	33.30% (608)
Mitt Romney	23.49% (429)
Tom Tancredo	18.57% (339)
Duncan Hunter	8.54% (156)
Rudy Giuliani	6.19% (113)
Sam Brownback	2.46% (45)
John McCain	2.30% (42)
Mike Huckabee	2.19% (40)
Tommy Thompson	2.03% (37)
Jim Gilmore	0.93% (17)
Added 5-7-07: ConservativesBetrayed.com: If you watched the May 3 Republican presidential debate on MSNBC, who do you think was the biggest winner?
Ron Paul	77.58% (412)
Mitt Romney	10.35% (55)
Tom Tancredo	3.01% (16)
Duncan Hunter	2.63% (14)
Rudy Giuliani	2.25% (12)
John McCain	1.69% (9)
Mike Huckabee	1.31% (7)
Jim Gilmore	0.56% (3)
Sam Brownback	0.37% (2)
Tommy Thompson	0.18% (1)
Added 5-7-07: ABCNews.com: : Who do you think came out on top at the Republican debate?
Ron Paul	87% (6415)
It Doesn't Matter	8% (595)
None of them	1% (96)
Mitt Romney	1% (87)
Rudy Giuliani	1% (78)
John McCain	0% (33)
Tom Tancredo	0% (20)
Mike Huckabee	0% (10)
Tommy Thompson	0% (10)
Sam Brownback	0% (9)
Duncan Hunter	0% (7)
James Gilmore	0% (4)
Now, look at MSNBC's Published ranking: 9. Ron Paul - Texas congressman Last Ranking: -- The anti-war Republican stood out, and his answers (here) were the talk of the spin room -- well, parts of it, anyway. Our problem: until he starts to take votes from someone else, we don't know where to place him.
Next day's coverage on the wires: Other participants in the debate included ...Ron Paul, Congressman from Texas. chirp chirp... chirp...

---

Yahoo News: Ron Paul Wins MSNBC Debate Poll
Fri May 4, 2:49 PM ET
To: POLITICAL EDITORS

Contact: Jesse Benton of the Ron Paul (news, bio, voting record) 2008 Presidential Campaign Committee, +1-202-246-6363

ARLINGTON, Va., May 4 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Congressman Ron Paul finished first in the MSNBC poll following the GOP primary debate last night held at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. Dr. Paul received 43 percent, beating the second-place finisher by five points, and crushing the rest of the field.


"Last night, Americans met Ron Paul and loved what they heard," said campaign chairman Kent Snyder. "Dr. Paul's message of freedom and limited government resonates with Republicans hungry for a return to their party's core values."


"Ron Paul is the only true conservative in the GOP race. Americans saw that last night," continued Snyder. "The campaign looks forward to further debates and opportunities so even more Americans will discover Dr. Paul's message of freedom, peace and prosperity."

In order to help Paul break into the mainstream, please contribute what you can to his campaign. Even $25 will help. $100 would be better, the maximum you can give for the party primary election campaign is $2,000. Together we'll put this country back on its moral, freedom-minded course.

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